Mucking around in the poll; Iowa Caucuses 2012

The results are:

Gingrich 22
Paul 21
Romney 16
Bachman 11, trailed by Perry, Santorum, and Huntsman

And since we're less interested in any given politician -- even Dr. Paul -- than we are in advancing the idea of liberty, let's nod to Gary Johnson who cracks the chart for  the first time that I've noticed -- at one per cent with an invisible campaign. He isn't really running for president, of course. He running to be Ron Paul in 2016.

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Couple of other points:

If you lived in Iowa and watched television,  you would be be puking sick at the teevee spot saturation. As ridiculous as we find it, this sort of nonsense has its effects, so there are no sure bets. One Willy Horton spot could change everything.

Since Paul could now be considered "surging" and a probable front runner, he has a bigger bullseye painted on his back. So far, the GOP and media establishments have been content to treat him with amused condescension, but it's probably safe to bet that the opposition researchers are up early this morning, making mud of dirt and raw milk.

Declining fortunes of the holiest candidates can be attributed to dissension among the Van Der Platts Peeps evangelicals. They're all strung out about which of their one-time messiahs comes close enough to theocratic purity. Who the Hell do they think they are? Big-L libertarians?

Frankie Laine sings Ron Paul

"Get those dogies movin,  
  "Tho' they're disapprovin'
"RAWMIIILK."

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Dr. Ron brought down the house last night in New Hampshire with a clarion call to let folks drink raw milk if they want. Holy Moly, Mary Marvel -- Cannabis. Raw Milk. There goes the Republic.

It's making the teevee heads even more nervous in light of Paul's new statistical tie with Newt in Iowa.

Gee, I like starting the day with a grin.

Hunch confirmed: Gingrich, Paul, Romney: Iowa Caucuses 2012

A brief recess from reality is in order as we hoist a pint to Ron Paul. He makes the headlines again in the  farm-fresh Iowa Poll --  behind Newt and ahead of MItt, also up on even Dunno.

In order:

Newt Gingrich 25
Ron Paul 18
Mitt Romney 16
Undecided 11
Michele Bachmann 8
Herman Cain 8 (poll taken before he hit the mat))
Rick Perry 6
Rick Santorum 6

I'm not about to crunch  lot of numbers or subject readers to prophecy posing as analysis, but something stands out. Even if every Cain voter switched to Bachmann or Perry or Santorum, that person would still trail Dr. Paul.

Politico's Maggie Haberman purrs welcome words into libertarian-leaning ears:

As for the rest, the poll also means the Paul rise is also real - and in a fractured, multi-candidate field, if he can pull a few more points his way and expand his base, he could win the caucuses given his level of organization. This would be the best scenario for Romney short of an outright win there himself at this point.

It wouldn't be bad for Paul, either. Even scaring Newt here would send him strong to New Hampshire where a finish around  20 per cent would keep him kicking through more primaries than we expected.

We all know the odds that, in the end, one of the showmen will beat the statesman. Never mind. We were never about Ron Paul. We are about the idea of free men and women, an idea whose most effective embodiment at this stage of our history is Ron Paul.

Saturday guns, Saturday politicians

(Being a partial compendium of what's important to me today.)

Iowa Caucuses: The quick are Gingrich, Paul, and Romney. The dead are everyone else.  An Iowa Poll  to be released this evening should reflect that hunch, but it won't  say much about where Cain people are going. I judge they'll scatter, keeping the Newt-Ron-Mitt lineup intact.

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Iowa guns: Thanks to the nice little Jackson loophole,  K. and I may augment the state's arsenal at the expense of Minnesota's. The small trading windfall of last weekend left a supply of mad money in the Bat Belt.  It seeks blue steel shooting things old, heavy, and slow, not unlike your author.

Christmas is a time for materialistic dreaming, so I am permitted to fantasize about finding a quality 1911 frame  or two --  a place to put those extra slides and barrels.

(Note to self: Also watch for .30 M1 Carbine bullets in honor of the new set of dies for same. Time to heat that old girl up a little.)

We're taking nothing to trade, still standing on our "never-sell-a-gun"  principles. The Model 88 was a rare exception, purchased strictly for rapid turnover.

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The first measurable snow of the season is to occur today, statistically a little late. It's been a gorgeous autumn, and I am grateful for the localized global warming.

Holiday Visitation

Virtually the entire GOP field, the Class of '12 , visits Camp J on Iowa Caucus Day minus 33.  Only Dr. Ron Paul was absent.

From world welfare capital

Looking for a reason to admire Herman Cain and despise Newt Gingrich?

Search no further than the land of the tall corn where our economic base grows in rows, where our corn and bean producers have, for a century and a-half, cultivated an image of sober, god-fearing, rugged individualism.

And so they endorse* for President of These United States, ta-da, conservative Newt Gingrich.

Newt Gingrich earned straight A’s on agriculture, energy, trade and other policies measured by the Iowa Corn Growers Association.

They love Newt because he promises to give them all they want of other people's stuff. And I do mean all they want. He is the agripimptorian of the GOP Class of '12.

By contrast, the Row Crop Royalty hates Herman Cain without even referring to off-field boffing. Herm gets a "D" for telling the Corn Growers' Association to put on big-boy pants and quit whining like a 16-year-old unwed mother of three on the south side of Chicago upset because she doan get enough from the welfare.

Our Ron Paul sits in the back of the room with Herman. He also earned a "D" despite not returning the questionnaire. The cornies said they evaluated such refusniks by checking their records and public statements. Paul, of course, has taken several subversive positions, including the radical notion that you should be permitted to put gasoline in your tank.

Just for shidts and grins, I suppose, the corn growers also graded His Ineptness, the sitting president.  Barry got a "B," tied with Mitt Romney.

N.B. -- To absorb the full flavor of all this, a guy should take time to click through the links in the news story and on the corn growers candidate report card where you can read the questions and candidate answers. If the corn growers implicit demands don't read like an Acorn wish list I'll kiss your arse in a crop circle and let you take aerial photos with a long lens.

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* “ 'This is a tool for farmers and voters, not an endorsement,'  (said) Corn Growers president Kevin Ross..."   Kevin, that's bullshit and you know it.


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Fate of the Nation

Or, "Back to work after a day of monumental bad judgement at the groaning board." (Thank you Enid et al. Food and company outstanding, as usual.)

Politics, bucolic style: By this time a citizen who pays attention should have a very plausible list of top Iowa Caucus finishers. Not this year. The state polls are like congressman's morals -- loose, confused, and certainly not to be relied on.

In order, the averages make it;

Gingrich
Cain
Romney
Paul

My take puts Paul no worse than third -- or second if the Gingrich immigration stand really riles the right.

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More than usual, the outcome may depend on weather the night of January 3. A good libertarian thinker  hopes for the mother of all blizzards. If the north wind shuts down the state, the "values voters" will  cocoon and pray for a miracle.

The Ron Paul forces will mobilize everything from snowmobiles to one-horse open sleighs. Victory will be ours, a landslide.

Debate afterthought

Oratory seeks to sway people with the allure of magical thinking.

If Dr. Paul had the gift of oratory he would be the man to beat. But then he wouldn't be Ron Paul, would he?

Political short take

Barack Obama returned from the Mysterious East and chose his 2012 opponent. Mitt Romney. Why should his loyal opposition trouble itself with all that complicated primary stuff?

The president will blanket Iowa with Charlie McCarthy's reading Obama talking points. The mouthpiece du jour is R.T. Rybak, mayor of Minneapolis. He likes light rail, high-end bike trails, and about anything else that can't be operated without massive tax subsidies.

He's also a former neighborhood organizer who early put his nose under the Obama coat tail and was rewarded with vice-chairmanship of the Democratic National Commitee.

We consider ourselves lucky to have the counsel of such a man, but I think we'll go ahead and hold our caucuses anyway. A matter of form, don't you know.

The Wednesday morning authoritarian

I'm breaking libertarian principles here by saying you did  wrong this morning if you watched MSNBC instead of CNBC. You must mount your De Lorean and return in order to rectify your lives.

The Morning Joe gang was stunned by yesterday's poll reporting the four-way dead heat  in the Iowa caucus race. So  they naturally brought in Chris Mathews to help them regain their composure. He led them through a therapeutic session based on the novel ideas that (1)  Republicans don't much like Romney (2) Gingrich has a lot of personal baggage and (3) potential voters can be a pretty flighty bunch early in the election cycle. Thanks, Chris. We didn't know.

Just when I thought it was over, Mika -- of all people --  said some viewers might think their reporting was merely blasting Republicans rather than addressing what is "good for the country."  Heads nodded and we got a nice little coda emphasizing that the good of the country requires policies sort of splitting the difference between  Obama and Romney.  Good idea -- averaging out pi and 3.15.

Need I mention that the name of Ron Paul, second in the poll, went unmentioned?

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Clicking my magic wormhole over to CNBC, I found the the financial talkies letting Darell Issa speak his piece -- giving him time to complete his sentences and even short paragraphs.

I discovered  myself almost admiring a misdemeanant (at least)  and Patriot Act backer  who, here in 2011, is capable of talking about the right things,  structuring government for efficiency and a good chance of freeing people to succeed or fail on their own merits.  I suppose a lot of the Left will call him a sorehead for mentioning Solyndra.

(I totally forgot to check Fox News for thigh reveals. Must be getting old.)

The Iron Man Ron Paul

This surprises me, even though I've always credited Dr. Paul with support well beyond what the famous talkers concede him.

Ann Selzer is the gal who specializes in measuring Iowa opinion, and she's typically  good at her job.  She just released a new  poll of likely Iowa caucus goers, and Paul is No. 2.

Ranking of everyone with a chance:

Cain 20
Paul 19
Romney 18
Gingrich 17

Yep, a statistical tie for first with all three of the others.

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TBC after I make some progress on a more pleasant task -- rummaging through the vault and reloading shack  for  an eight-foot  table's worth of stuff neither I nor any of my pals can use. I mean, being a crack political analyst is all well and good, but it's more noble to be thought of as a crack Loophole Vendor.

Yeah, he probably groped 'em

In a society governing itself in mature ways, the political response would be, "So what?"

My belief, based on nothing by way of fact other than what everyone has seen, is that he had a lech on for the office help and did a little probing in hopes of getting lucky. That makes him tacky, distasteful, boorish, socially inept.

It does not insert him into another minority group. The generation of executives from whom he chose his mentors was rife with bosses who believed it best if the girls in the typing pool could type, but, if they couldn't, might be retained for other positions.   Call it wrong, but recognize that it was the culture and it took an unusually strong man to resist.

A morning review of Politico shows nine fat stories on office groping in the 90s by the man would would be president.  Probably that many more are being run through spell czeck. The underlying theme is that a man guilty of a furtive slap and tickle is unqualified to administer the federal government; a  man such as William Jefferson Clinton.

There are good reasons to oppose this guy, to see him as a  buffoon. China on the verge of nuclear capability. The 999 plan (crafted solely to seem simple to the dullest voter).  His love relationship with fiat currency and high-speed presses over at  Printing and Engraving.

Inviting Whazzername to his apartment is not one of those reasons. If it were, the nation would be forced by logic to cancel the halo of one John F. Kennedy.

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The real damage is to the quality of the national dialog. There for a while we thought it could go no lower.

Another girl with a gun

But at least this one is offered with a serious  political message.

"No. Herm, I don't think we should work in your apartment tonight."

A wee bit more on search and seizure

A couple of readers seemed interested enough to want to see the full text of the Iowa Supreme Court decision restricting willy-nilly cop searches when you're busted for a faulty license plate light.

The decision text.

There's also a political element working.

The decision was 5-1, Waterman dissenting. The seventh justice, Mansfield, sat it out because he was on the appellate court which upheld the illegal search of the defendant's truck.

Both Waterman and Mansfield are new justices, appointed this year because of a strange development.

In 2009 the high court offended social conservatives by ruling, unanimously, that the Iowa Constitution forbade a ban on gay marriages.  For this the Vander Platts Window Peeps* decided to oust every justice up for retention.They succeeded, and three justices were ejected, two of them  replaced by the authoritarians Waterman and Mansfield.

So, if you dislike judges prone to give the cops everything they want,** your preliminary "no" voting list should include Their Honors Waterman and Mansfield. Of course your decision won't be that easy if you agree that a vital government function is restricting the spouse pool for the GLBT set.

(The third new judge, Bruce Zager, agreed with the majority that jackbooted intrusions need severe limits.)

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**Vander Platts was once most notable for losing his elections. Then, for a time this year, he  enjoyed a good deal of national media attention as the Iowa Caucuses kingmaker because he purports to lead the anti-sin brigades around here. Not so much, lately.  His Queen Bachmann and King Perry have raved themselves into ridicule. His tentative King Cain seems to have indulged in a little grabass with office girls, which Vander Platts woulld see as  anti-scriptural. And his other  King-pro-tem, Santorum,  just can't seem to turn his wife's muffins into political support.

**...because officer safety is paramount, not to mention battling the scourge of reefer madness.

Sunday morning catch-all

1. The Roseholme girls are still enjoying their new Toro leaf blower. Mine, on the other hand, quit Thursday. Just up  and died while blowing heartily. I suspect a bad switch or  broken internal wire. I am resolved to make one half-hearted attempt to worry the plastic cover apart and repair any obvious problem.  One-half of one hour is dedicated to this mission. On the 31st minute the sucker either blows leaves or goes landfilling. Aside: You'd think an $80 machine would last longer than 13 years, even if it did get frequently rained on.

2. A pal and I spent yesterday morning at the fine little Windom loophole.  I bought nothing worth mentioning, but wouldn't have missed it for the world. Many classics. A ton of military stuff from webbing to Garands to 1911s. Two of the .45s stood out. One definitely original -- no hint of arsenal work, smooth metal and much blue still present -- carried a $1,250  ask. It made me go "hmmmm," but in the end I passed. Probably a mistake, but I'm already a  little over budget for lethality this this month.

3. On Dawn Patrol this morning,  New Dog Libby caught a walleye. It hadn't been dead too many days. Nevertheless, I am experimenting with breath mints in her drinking water.

4. The new Iowa Poll on the presidential caucuses is out. Cain and Romney lead in the low/middle 20s Good Doctor Ron Paul is third with 12 per cent. Other members of the Romney-Cain Bokanovsky Group are at 8 per cent or less. This poll has historically been as good as they come in measuring caucus-goer sentiment  but, in the end,  no poll does much more than quantify the effects of recent noise coming out of our electric teevee sets.

5. There an ash of opportunity down on some nearby homeowner association property, and the weather is so nice I think I'll go get it this afternoon. I'm a bit short on firewood. Finders-keepers.

The GOP follies, hog lot editon; Iowa Caucuses 2012

It's all set, gang. Florida and Nevada hang their heads in repentant shame, meaning  the Iowa Caucuses will not be held on Christmas Eve: The schedule:

January 3 -- Iowa caucuses

January 10 -- Hew Hampshire primary

January 21 -- South Carolina primary

January 31 -- Florida primary

February 4 -- Nevada caucuses

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Those of you with a bent for history will wish to note that Iowans caucus on the anniversary of Martin Luther's excommunication by Pope Leo X, leading directly to development of of the church basement dinner and, ultimately, invention of the crock pot.

In New Hampshire,  Republicans will vote on the date of Thomas Paine's publication of "Common Sense." They will choose Mitt Romney, proving that Paine's literary effort ultimately came to nought.

The South Carolina vote celebrates the birthday of John M. Browning, PBUH. He deserves better.

The Florida geezers will interfere with what should be a solemn commemoration. On January 31, 1606, the English executed Guy Fawkes  and his buddies for trying to blow up King and Parliament.  C'mon, Your Lordships. Should have been noll prossed or, at worst, tried as a simple misdemeanor.

The Nevada caucuses occur on the date Benjamin Palmer patented the artificial leg. This is politically important, leading as it did to a  Chicago development where Democrats were inspired to patent the artificial vote.

Who's winning? Ron Paul. That's who

A  report on Iowans' contributions to presidential candidates through mid-October:


Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the Republican candidates in contributions from Iowa. Paul garnered more than $77,000, while Romney pulled in more than $67,000.

Gee, you'd think the leader, who outpaced the runnerup  -- a man with a much better haircut -- by better than 12 per cent,  might have rated his own little paragraph.

The other GOPers shared $110,000. Obama collected $200,000

Obama lite

Yes, that's a confusing headline. Obviously it refers to someone other than Obama who, himself, has set a liteness record which ought to send all competitors scurrying.

I speak here of  "lite "only in the mental and moral senses. The president's ambition is heavy beyond belief. That is, he wishes to continue being president. Outsized ambition is depressingly common. As the great sociologist Ogden Nash reported, everybody wants to be a wow.

...all the little process-servers hope to  

    grow up into great big bailiffim and sheriffim.

One lite competitor who won't scurry is Mitt Romney, subject of a short and cogent item in the Washington Examiner.


Writer Douglas MacKinnon offers samples of Romney policiy differing from Obama policy in ways detectable only by advanced science using the most sensitive instruments. If at all.

And then he wonders:

Are you kidding me?  Is anyone in the GOP paying attention to what is going on here?  Is the Republican establishment so desperate to hold on to its power that it will continually look the other way as a chameleon-like candidate not only dreams up the ideas used by far-left Obama White House, but praises one of the people most reviled by the conservative movement?


The short answers to "Are you kidding me?" and "Is anyone in the GOP establishment paying attention...?"  are "no" and  "no."  They are also the long answers.
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Dear Diary

Okay, Jim, you have been entirely self-indulgent for too long.

Save for a few .30-30s and those pounds of  military .30-06, every case in the loading shack is full of powder and lead. The shack itself is so neatly reorganized  you'll never find what you're looking for. You've had your jollies  burnishing steel and shining stocks with walnut flavored  MinWax. You even went to Southern Archery yesterday and popped $21.35 on a string for the Ben Pearson recurve. (Highway robbery, but that's another story.)

But  in two full weeks you haven't contributed one damned thing to the Revolution, to saving the Republic  from the Republicans, the Democrats, and Heartbreak of Sorosisis.

Back to the grindstone.

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There's a new Reuters/Ipsos poll reported this morning. Mitt leads, followed by 999 Cain. But guess who's third. Guess who's ahead of Perry, Bachman, Gingrich, Santorum, and the other famous occupants of the Fox-approved neocon asylum?

Ron Paul, that's who. The crazy old doctor-coot from malarial Texas. The one who keeps yapping about the Constitution and  going on and on about the necessary and useful functions of government as opposed to wholesale vote buying financed by exorbitant taxes and currency inflation.

Yes, I understand there is as much chance of Paul occupying the White House as there is of me shooting a thousand-yard Camp Perry score of of 100- 9x, offhand with my Model 94.

That ain't the point.

It took us more than two centuries to become competitors with Greece, Ireland, and Malawi as the world's most laughable economic basket case.  No single politician, not even Paul is going to lead us out of the malaise in a term or two.

But an idea can, and  at this horrid point in the American saga, Paul is the most effective purveyer of the underlying notion of liberty and a decent shot at general  prosperity.

Send him your spare change.  Wear one of his gimme hats or tees.  Every time the subject comes up in your circles,  politely wait your turn to speak and then explain calmly and professionally why he should get more votes. I suggest this wording:

"Because he's the only one not totally full of shit." 

Herding the Elephants Update -- Iowa Caucuses 2012

Bumped up for convenience again, and including an  adieu to Ms. Palin:

Also, it's nearing the time to create a cleaner list -- retaining only those candidates still twitching with residual life. It's high on the to-do list for a time when our northern plains weather is less lovely.

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(Bumped up, just for convenience.)

Even dedicated political geeks have a hard time keeping track of all the White House hopefuls trying out their pickup lines in Iowa. For one thing, it is hard to find a complete list of the serious, semi-serious,  and loony  trying on overalls and looking for a comfortable hay-bale perch.  So, here's an alphabetical list of these statesmen as culled from published sources, but I haven't gotten around to ferreting out all of the more obscure dimwaddiedoowops yet. 

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--Michele Bachmann, 55,  congresswoman, Minnesota


--(OUT) Haley Barbour, 64, Mississippi governor (Dropped out April 25)


--John Bolton,  63, former ambassador, Bush II's point man in Iraq. (Dropped out September 26.) 


-- (OUT) Herman Cain, 66, Godfather's Pizza. (Dropped out -- "suspendd campaign"  -- December 3


-- (OUT) Mitch Daniels, 62, Indiana governor (dropped May 21)


--John Davis of Grand Junction, Colorado, lumber yard owner, builder (added May 3)


--Newt Gingrich,  68, former U.S. House speaker, Georgia


--(OUT) Mike Huckabee, 56, former Arkansas governor, Fox teevee star (dropped May 15)


--Jon Huntsman, 51, former Utah governor,  ambassador to China


--Gary Johnson, 43, former New Mexico governor (added April 22)

--Fred Karger, California, GOP politcal consultant, openly gay. (Added August 14)

--(OUT) Thaddeus George "Thad" McCotter, 45,  Michigan congressman (added June 24, dropped out September 22.) 

--Judge Roy Moore, 64, disrobed, two-time loser for Alabama governor  (added May 19)


--Sarah Palin,  47, former Alaska governor, VP candidate 2008 (Out. Withdrew   Oct. 5.)

--(OUT) George Pataki, 66, former New York governor. (Added august 25 and dropped August 26) 

--(OUT) Rand Paul, 48, Kentucky U.S. senator (if  his dad opts out).  (Dropped April 26 in anticipation of Ron's formal "in" announcement)


  
--Ron Paul, 75, Texas congressman, former LP presidential candidate


--Tim Pawlenty,  51, former  Minnesota governor (Dropped August 14; withdrew after Ames straw poll)


--(OUT)  Mike Pence, 52, Indiana congressman (dropped May 15)


--Rick Perry, 61, Texas governor, (added June 19)


--Buddy Roemer, 68, former Louisiana governor


--Mitt Romney, 64, former Massachusetts governor


--Rick Santorum,  53, former U.S. senator, Pennsylvania


--( OUT?) John thune, South Dakota senator. (Dropped from list,with reservations, May 21)


--(OUT) Donald Trump, 65, businessman, casino operator, teevee star (dropped May 16) 

-0-

The list will change, and I'll try to keep it more or less up to date.

EDIT: May 5:Red ink identifies those who bailed after having been considered players or possibles.  I thought of just deleting them, but that seems so cold.

EDIT: John Thune was Xed out May 21. He said in February he wouldn't run, but the weasel words(not planning at this time, etc.)suggested he desired begging. No one has  begged yet,  and he hasn't been spotted scouting our hog lots, so TMR crosses him off with the caution that things are silly enough that he might change his mind.)