Showing posts with label Ron Paul. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ron Paul. Show all posts
Dec 17, 2011
Dec 16, 2011
Ron Paul bats .500; Iowa Caucuses 2012
The debate question was about electability. Who can beat His Ineptness?
Ron Paul responds:
"Any one of us on this stage can beat President Obama...". It's a fine applause line, and he gets it, a cheerleader effect. (Match a junior high eleven against the Chicago Bears and the school gym pep rally will echo with promises of an upset. Republicans are becoming persuaded Obama will beat himself, just like unpopular Harry Truman did in 1948.) No score.
When things quiet down, he becomes his sensible self again: "... the question is, what do we have to offer?" Then he trots out the logic which defines him, sound money, and end to warlike nation building in the Sandbox and beyond, government as a necessary evil rather than dispenser of free ice cream. Bingo. Out of the park, Sir. Everyone who hates free ice cream will vote for you.
---
Embarrassment of the night: Rick Perry: "I'm the Tim Tebow of the Iowa caucuses."
Surprise of the night: Michele appears quite sane in one or two exchanges and seems to have won the point that Newt is an ass for patting her girly little head.
Winner of the Georgia two-step competition: Newt for his creative explanation that sucking a million-six from the taxpayers via Freddie and Fannie is neither lobbying nor influence peddling.
Most disciplined hair and best-tailored suit: Mitt, for the umpteenth time, retiring the trophy.
As usual, Santorum displays the most concerned visage, just this side of tears. As a matter of simple human compassion, we need to cheer this guy up. Next time, somebody should ask him about muffins.
Also present: Huntsman.
Ron Paul responds:
"Any one of us on this stage can beat President Obama...". It's a fine applause line, and he gets it, a cheerleader effect. (Match a junior high eleven against the Chicago Bears and the school gym pep rally will echo with promises of an upset. Republicans are becoming persuaded Obama will beat himself, just like unpopular Harry Truman did in 1948.) No score.
When things quiet down, he becomes his sensible self again: "... the question is, what do we have to offer?" Then he trots out the logic which defines him, sound money, and end to warlike nation building in the Sandbox and beyond, government as a necessary evil rather than dispenser of free ice cream. Bingo. Out of the park, Sir. Everyone who hates free ice cream will vote for you.
---
Embarrassment of the night: Rick Perry: "I'm the Tim Tebow of the Iowa caucuses."
Surprise of the night: Michele appears quite sane in one or two exchanges and seems to have won the point that Newt is an ass for patting her girly little head.
Winner of the Georgia two-step competition: Newt for his creative explanation that sucking a million-six from the taxpayers via Freddie and Fannie is neither lobbying nor influence peddling.
Most disciplined hair and best-tailored suit: Mitt, for the umpteenth time, retiring the trophy.
As usual, Santorum displays the most concerned visage, just this side of tears. As a matter of simple human compassion, we need to cheer this guy up. Next time, somebody should ask him about muffins.
Also present: Huntsman.
Dec 14, 2011
Mucking around in the poll; Iowa Caucuses 2012
The results are:
Gingrich 22
Paul 21
Romney 16
Bachman 11, trailed by Perry, Santorum, and Huntsman
And since we're less interested in any given politician -- even Dr. Paul -- than we are in advancing the idea of liberty, let's nod to Gary Johnson who cracks the chart for the first time that I've noticed -- at one per cent with an invisible campaign. He isn't really running for president, of course. He running to be Ron Paul in 2016.
---
Couple of other points:
If you lived in Iowa and watched television, you would be be puking sick at the teevee spot saturation. As ridiculous as we find it, this sort of nonsense has its effects, so there are no sure bets. One Willy Horton spot could change everything.
Since Paul could now be considered "surging" and a probable front runner, he has a bigger bullseye painted on his back. So far, the GOP and media establishments have been content to treat him with amused condescension, but it's probably safe to bet that the opposition researchers are up early this morning, making mud of dirt and raw milk.
Declining fortunes of the holiest candidates can be attributed to dissension among the Van Der Platts Peeps evangelicals. They're all strung out about which of their one-time messiahs comes close enough to theocratic purity. Who the Hell do they think they are? Big-L libertarians?
Gingrich 22
Paul 21
Romney 16
Bachman 11, trailed by Perry, Santorum, and Huntsman
And since we're less interested in any given politician -- even Dr. Paul -- than we are in advancing the idea of liberty, let's nod to Gary Johnson who cracks the chart for the first time that I've noticed -- at one per cent with an invisible campaign. He isn't really running for president, of course. He running to be Ron Paul in 2016.
---
Couple of other points:
If you lived in Iowa and watched television, you would be be puking sick at the teevee spot saturation. As ridiculous as we find it, this sort of nonsense has its effects, so there are no sure bets. One Willy Horton spot could change everything.
Since Paul could now be considered "surging" and a probable front runner, he has a bigger bullseye painted on his back. So far, the GOP and media establishments have been content to treat him with amused condescension, but it's probably safe to bet that the opposition researchers are up early this morning, making mud of dirt and raw milk.
Declining fortunes of the holiest candidates can be attributed to dissension among the Van Der Platts Peeps evangelicals. They're all strung out about which of their one-time messiahs comes close enough to theocratic purity. Who the Hell do they think they are? Big-L libertarians?
Frankie Laine sings Ron Paul
"Get those dogies movin,
"Tho' they're disapprovin'
"RAWMIIILK."
---
Dr. Ron brought down the house last night in New Hampshire with a clarion call to let folks drink raw milk if they want. Holy Moly, Mary Marvel -- Cannabis. Raw Milk. There goes the Republic.
It's making the teevee heads even more nervous in light of Paul's new statistical tie with Newt in Iowa.
Gee, I like starting the day with a grin.
"Tho' they're disapprovin'
"RAWMIIILK."
---
Dr. Ron brought down the house last night in New Hampshire with a clarion call to let folks drink raw milk if they want. Holy Moly, Mary Marvel -- Cannabis. Raw Milk. There goes the Republic.
It's making the teevee heads even more nervous in light of Paul's new statistical tie with Newt in Iowa.
Gee, I like starting the day with a grin.
Dec 3, 2011
Hunch confirmed: Gingrich, Paul, Romney: Iowa Caucuses 2012
A brief recess from reality is in order as we hoist a pint to Ron Paul. He makes the headlines again in the farm-fresh Iowa Poll -- behind Newt and ahead of MItt, also up on even Dunno.
In order:
Newt Gingrich 25
Ron Paul 18
Mitt Romney 16
Undecided 11
Michele Bachmann 8
Herman Cain 8 (poll taken before he hit the mat))
Rick Perry 6
Rick Santorum 6
I'm not about to crunch lot of numbers or subject readers to prophecy posing as analysis, but something stands out. Even if every Cain voter switched to Bachmann or Perry or Santorum, that person would still trail Dr. Paul.
Politico's Maggie Haberman purrs welcome words into libertarian-leaning ears:
As for the rest, the poll also means the Paul rise is also real - and in a fractured, multi-candidate field, if he can pull a few more points his way and expand his base, he could win the caucuses given his level of organization. This would be the best scenario for Romney short of an outright win there himself at this point.
It wouldn't be bad for Paul, either. Even scaring Newt here would send him strong to New Hampshire where a finish around 20 per cent would keep him kicking through more primaries than we expected.
We all know the odds that, in the end, one of the showmen will beat the statesman. Never mind. We were never about Ron Paul. We are about the idea of free men and women, an idea whose most effective embodiment at this stage of our history is Ron Paul.
In order:
Newt Gingrich 25
Ron Paul 18
Mitt Romney 16
Undecided 11
Michele Bachmann 8
Herman Cain 8 (poll taken before he hit the mat))
Rick Perry 6
Rick Santorum 6
I'm not about to crunch lot of numbers or subject readers to prophecy posing as analysis, but something stands out. Even if every Cain voter switched to Bachmann or Perry or Santorum, that person would still trail Dr. Paul.
Politico's Maggie Haberman purrs welcome words into libertarian-leaning ears:
As for the rest, the poll also means the Paul rise is also real - and in a fractured, multi-candidate field, if he can pull a few more points his way and expand his base, he could win the caucuses given his level of organization. This would be the best scenario for Romney short of an outright win there himself at this point.
It wouldn't be bad for Paul, either. Even scaring Newt here would send him strong to New Hampshire where a finish around 20 per cent would keep him kicking through more primaries than we expected.
We all know the odds that, in the end, one of the showmen will beat the statesman. Never mind. We were never about Ron Paul. We are about the idea of free men and women, an idea whose most effective embodiment at this stage of our history is Ron Paul.
Dec 1, 2011
Holiday Visitation
Virtually the entire GOP field, the Class of '12 , visits Camp J on Iowa Caucus Day minus 33. Only Dr. Ron Paul was absent.
Nov 23, 2011
Debate afterthought
Oratory seeks to sway people with the allure of magical thinking.
If Dr. Paul had the gift of oratory he would be the man to beat. But then he wouldn't be Ron Paul, would he?
If Dr. Paul had the gift of oratory he would be the man to beat. But then he wouldn't be Ron Paul, would he?
Nov 21, 2011
888888 post
About three "real" essays rest in my blogger "save" box, but damned if I can get motivated to call up any one of them and batter it into some semblance of readable coherence.
Maybe I'm demoralized because, unless I misconstrue her, Ron Paul has lost Tam.
(Remember Lyndon Johnson at the height of his Asian diplomacy and Vietnam War fubar fest? Remember the night Grandpa Walter of CBS called him on it? Remember Lyndon moaning, "If I've lost Cronkite, I've lost the country?" History rhymes.)
Or maybe my synapses are discommoded from messing around with a bunch of non-organic electrons. To wit:
I have sybaritic dreams of stepping out of the shower into an 88-degree chamber on winter's most evil day and to do it without heating up the entire house. So I finally got round to installing the beautiful old Arvin heater.
When I got the plasterboard* out I found the light switch didn't need to be disturbed, but the little box for the existing duplex outlet was too busy for the tie-in. The replacement double box is still tight and -- to come to the point of this whine -- it's in a cramped corner requiring left-handed work. Ladies and gentlemen, I am fully entitled to bitch about having to screw screws and wire nuts and wrap tape in such a sinister manner.
Anyway, it's all done now, and perhaps I'll be able to improve my mood by persuading myself that all that left-handed agony will strengthen my weak-hand shooting.
I'll let you know.
---
*AKA "sheet rock" and "wall board" and "the world's most obnoxious construction material." In a properly run nation it would be outlawed.
Maybe I'm demoralized because, unless I misconstrue her, Ron Paul has lost Tam.
(Remember Lyndon Johnson at the height of his Asian diplomacy and Vietnam War fubar fest? Remember the night Grandpa Walter of CBS called him on it? Remember Lyndon moaning, "If I've lost Cronkite, I've lost the country?" History rhymes.)
Or maybe my synapses are discommoded from messing around with a bunch of non-organic electrons. To wit:
I have sybaritic dreams of stepping out of the shower into an 88-degree chamber on winter's most evil day and to do it without heating up the entire house. So I finally got round to installing the beautiful old Arvin heater.
When I got the plasterboard* out I found the light switch didn't need to be disturbed, but the little box for the existing duplex outlet was too busy for the tie-in. The replacement double box is still tight and -- to come to the point of this whine -- it's in a cramped corner requiring left-handed work. Ladies and gentlemen, I am fully entitled to bitch about having to screw screws and wire nuts and wrap tape in such a sinister manner.
Anyway, it's all done now, and perhaps I'll be able to improve my mood by persuading myself that all that left-handed agony will strengthen my weak-hand shooting.
I'll let you know.
---
*AKA "sheet rock" and "wall board" and "the world's most obnoxious construction material." In a properly run nation it would be outlawed.
Nov 15, 2011
The Iron Man Ron Paul
This surprises me, even though I've always credited Dr. Paul with support well beyond what the famous talkers concede him.
Ann Selzer is the gal who specializes in measuring Iowa opinion, and she's typically good at her job. She just released a new poll of likely Iowa caucus goers, and Paul is No. 2.
Ranking of everyone with a chance:
Cain 20
Paul 19
Romney 18
Gingrich 17
Yep, a statistical tie for first with all three of the others.
---
TBC after I make some progress on a more pleasant task -- rummaging through the vault and reloading shack for an eight-foot table's worth of stuff neither I nor any of my pals can use. I mean, being a crack political analyst is all well and good, but it's more noble to be thought of as a crack Loophole Vendor.
Ann Selzer is the gal who specializes in measuring Iowa opinion, and she's typically good at her job. She just released a new poll of likely Iowa caucus goers, and Paul is No. 2.
Ranking of everyone with a chance:
Cain 20
Paul 19
Romney 18
Gingrich 17
Yep, a statistical tie for first with all three of the others.
---
TBC after I make some progress on a more pleasant task -- rummaging through the vault and reloading shack for an eight-foot table's worth of stuff neither I nor any of my pals can use. I mean, being a crack political analyst is all well and good, but it's more noble to be thought of as a crack Loophole Vendor.
Oct 24, 2011
Who's winning? Ron Paul. That's who
A report on Iowans' contributions to presidential candidates through mid-October:
Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the Republican candidates in contributions from Iowa. Paul garnered more than $77,000, while Romney pulled in more than $67,000.
Gee, you'd think the leader, who outpaced the runnerup -- a man with a much better haircut -- by better than 12 per cent, might have rated his own little paragraph.
The other GOPers shared $110,000. Obama collected $200,000
Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the Republican candidates in contributions from Iowa. Paul garnered more than $77,000, while Romney pulled in more than $67,000.
Gee, you'd think the leader, who outpaced the runnerup -- a man with a much better haircut -- by better than 12 per cent, might have rated his own little paragraph.
The other GOPers shared $110,000. Obama collected $200,000
Oct 13, 2011
Dear Diary
Okay, Jim, you have been entirely self-indulgent for too long.
Save for a few .30-30s and those pounds of military .30-06, every case in the loading shack is full of powder and lead. The shack itself is so neatly reorganized you'll never find what you're looking for. You've had your jollies burnishing steel and shining stocks with walnut flavored MinWax. You even went to Southern Archery yesterday and popped $21.35 on a string for the Ben Pearson recurve. (Highway robbery, but that's another story.)
But in two full weeks you haven't contributed one damned thing to the Revolution, to saving the Republic from the Republicans, the Democrats, and Heartbreak of Sorosisis.
Back to the grindstone.
---
There's a new Reuters/Ipsos poll reported this morning. Mitt leads, followed by 999 Cain. But guess who's third. Guess who's ahead of Perry, Bachman, Gingrich, Santorum, and the other famous occupants of the Fox-approved neocon asylum?
Ron Paul, that's who. The crazy old doctor-coot from malarial Texas. The one who keeps yapping about the Constitution and going on and on about the necessary and useful functions of government as opposed to wholesale vote buying financed by exorbitant taxes and currency inflation.
Yes, I understand there is as much chance of Paul occupying the White House as there is of me shooting a thousand-yard Camp Perry score of of 100- 9x, offhand with my Model 94.
That ain't the point.
It took us more than two centuries to become competitors with Greece, Ireland, and Malawi as the world's most laughable economic basket case. No single politician, not even Paul is going to lead us out of the malaise in a term or two.
But an idea can, and at this horrid point in the American saga, Paul is the most effective purveyer of the underlying notion of liberty and a decent shot at general prosperity.
Send him your spare change. Wear one of his gimme hats or tees. Every time the subject comes up in your circles, politely wait your turn to speak and then explain calmly and professionally why he should get more votes. I suggest this wording:
"Because he's the only one not totally full of shit."
Save for a few .30-30s and those pounds of military .30-06, every case in the loading shack is full of powder and lead. The shack itself is so neatly reorganized you'll never find what you're looking for. You've had your jollies burnishing steel and shining stocks with walnut flavored MinWax. You even went to Southern Archery yesterday and popped $21.35 on a string for the Ben Pearson recurve. (Highway robbery, but that's another story.)
But in two full weeks you haven't contributed one damned thing to the Revolution, to saving the Republic from the Republicans, the Democrats, and Heartbreak of Sorosisis.
Back to the grindstone.
---
There's a new Reuters/Ipsos poll reported this morning. Mitt leads, followed by 999 Cain. But guess who's third. Guess who's ahead of Perry, Bachman, Gingrich, Santorum, and the other famous occupants of the Fox-approved neocon asylum?
Ron Paul, that's who. The crazy old doctor-coot from malarial Texas. The one who keeps yapping about the Constitution and going on and on about the necessary and useful functions of government as opposed to wholesale vote buying financed by exorbitant taxes and currency inflation.
Yes, I understand there is as much chance of Paul occupying the White House as there is of me shooting a thousand-yard Camp Perry score of of 100- 9x, offhand with my Model 94.
That ain't the point.
It took us more than two centuries to become competitors with Greece, Ireland, and Malawi as the world's most laughable economic basket case. No single politician, not even Paul is going to lead us out of the malaise in a term or two.
But an idea can, and at this horrid point in the American saga, Paul is the most effective purveyer of the underlying notion of liberty and a decent shot at general prosperity.
Send him your spare change. Wear one of his gimme hats or tees. Every time the subject comes up in your circles, politely wait your turn to speak and then explain calmly and professionally why he should get more votes. I suggest this wording:
"Because he's the only one not totally full of shit."
Sep 8, 2011
Ron Paul and the Great Debate
Sir, please spend whatever it costs to hire a good television coach. And pay attention when he explains the difference between television and the Shakespearean stage.
The images on tiny screens in millions of homes are fatal to the man who uses the broad gestures and large body language of live theatre. The rhetorical arts you learned in high school 60 years ago are deadly when teevee cameras zoom in. The shoulder lunges, in particular, say "crazy."
McLuhan and his followers illustrated how and why television is a "cool" medium requiring a "cool" approach.
It gags a man to suggest that you study the teevee style of Perry and Romney, but you should. Their relative mastery of television makes their bullshit sound almost plausible. Imagine what the approach would do for your message of recognizing reality and engaging in logical thought processes.
The images on tiny screens in millions of homes are fatal to the man who uses the broad gestures and large body language of live theatre. The rhetorical arts you learned in high school 60 years ago are deadly when teevee cameras zoom in. The shoulder lunges, in particular, say "crazy."
McLuhan and his followers illustrated how and why television is a "cool" medium requiring a "cool" approach.
It gags a man to suggest that you study the teevee style of Perry and Romney, but you should. Their relative mastery of television makes their bullshit sound almost plausible. Imagine what the approach would do for your message of recognizing reality and engaging in logical thought processes.
Aug 14, 2011
From the belly of the beast
(I'm still in Straw Poll recovery, tired. So let a rambling personal note to an old and dear friend stand as my interim report on the Ames follies. He writes:
...What about that Ron Paul? I'll bet the Republican National Committee reached in and burned a few hundred votes, else wise he wold have buried Michelle. Awesome. Can he win in January? End all the wars! Audit the Fed! Repeal the drug laws!
---
And I can do no better than:
...What about that Ron Paul? I'll bet the Republican National Committee reached in and burned a few hundred votes, else wise he wold have buried Michelle. Awesome. Can he win in January? End all the wars! Audit the Fed! Repeal the drug laws!
---
And I can do no better than:
The RP of Iowa runs this show, and the count is accurate. It is a quadrennial fund raiser which generates seven figures for the party, and these guys are smart enough to know that loose tallies would kill credibility, hence the goose.
What makes Paul's finish all the more impressive is his opponent. Actually, opponents, plural.
In running against Michele he took on the entire Jesus-on-my-Sleeve political apparatus, and Iowa is a fundamentalist bastion. They are well-funded and exceptionally well-organized. To even approach the numbers of Bob VanderPlatts' crusaders is a victory more than moral.
He also bucked the muddle-headed GOP center, what Goldwater called the east coast establishment, the Rockefellerites who differ with the hard left only in the speed and direction of their statist ambitions. And these guys are even richer than the fundies.
So, I'm pleased with his c. 25 per cent even though yesterday probably marked his personal high point. You should have noticed by now that the news coverage is concentrated on how soon Michele will burn out, how Romney will fare against Perry, and the level of chaos Sarah will create if and when she jumps in. In media eyes Congressman Paul remains a quaint old fellow with a few useful thoughts but certainly is not a man to be taken seriously. I mean, who cares about those crazy Austrian economists? Who can even understand them? And Murray Rothbard? Whozzat?
To be viable six months from now, Paul would need at least very strong second-place finishes in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. (Nevada -- where he might even win -- could help him, but I haven't checked on its 2012 primary/caucus arrangements yet.) He will get the money he needs for these early contests, but his message is ultimately not salable to 50 per cent plus one at this time in our history.
---
I was there with one of those unlimited-access badges around my neck, so I got to hang out about anywhere I wanted. I chose mostly to mingle with the enthusiastic youngsters -- kids your students' age. I haven't digested the events well enough to write about them yet, and I have only one firm observation to report: Ron Paul's volunteer co-eds were quite a little prettier than Michele's, but the typical Bachmann girl showed a lot more leg. Make of it what you will.
:)
Jim
(Addendum: I hope no one confuses opposition to theocracy with opposition to religion.)
Aug 12, 2011
Ron Paul and the Seven Dwarfs
No one laid a glove on him last night, but, then, no one really tried to box him into a corner. Paul was his usual thoughtful self which is good for the national intellect, not so good for getting elected.
No one but Rick (I'm holier than Michele, honest) Santorum even swung hard, and he drew boos for saying Paul's Fed stance was "mostly wrong."
It's all background noise now, of course. The debate spin cycle has just a few more hours to run, and by the time the straw poll opens tomorrow the electrical teevee will overload circuits with news of Rick (I'm even holier than Santorum, plus I can do arithmetic and have cooler hair) Perry.
It is no longer about policy. It's about buses from the boondocks to Ames, full of people who made up their minds long ago. Paul has spent money on this little beauty contest. He has the buses and a much better organization than 2007. In the data-free expectations charades, he's tabbed to finish in the top three with Michele and Somebody Else. The better he does, the more pressure on media types to quit snickering every time someone uses the term liberty.
(There are no polls about this straw poll. The universe is too small, the expected turnout ranging from just under 14,000 to maybe 18,000.)
---
Rocinante is saddled and I've scrubbed rust from the lance. A new edition of the TSA windmill identification guide is at hand. The house sitter/dog handler arrives shortly. I am putting aside my general disinclination to join groups larger than 30,000 and attend receptions where people in shined Florsheims notice your necktie. If this doesn't pay off in at least one belly laugh and several heartfelt grins, I am going to be one pissed off old war hose.
No one but Rick (I'm holier than Michele, honest) Santorum even swung hard, and he drew boos for saying Paul's Fed stance was "mostly wrong."
It's all background noise now, of course. The debate spin cycle has just a few more hours to run, and by the time the straw poll opens tomorrow the electrical teevee will overload circuits with news of Rick (I'm even holier than Santorum, plus I can do arithmetic and have cooler hair) Perry.
It is no longer about policy. It's about buses from the boondocks to Ames, full of people who made up their minds long ago. Paul has spent money on this little beauty contest. He has the buses and a much better organization than 2007. In the data-free expectations charades, he's tabbed to finish in the top three with Michele and Somebody Else. The better he does, the more pressure on media types to quit snickering every time someone uses the term liberty.
(There are no polls about this straw poll. The universe is too small, the expected turnout ranging from just under 14,000 to maybe 18,000.)
---
Rocinante is saddled and I've scrubbed rust from the lance. A new edition of the TSA windmill identification guide is at hand. The house sitter/dog handler arrives shortly. I am putting aside my general disinclination to join groups larger than 30,000 and attend receptions where people in shined Florsheims notice your necktie. If this doesn't pay off in at least one belly laugh and several heartfelt grins, I am going to be one pissed off old war hose.
Jun 24, 2011
Turkeys in the straw (also Ron Paul)
If you like politics or political theatre it's time now to refresh your memory by heading over to the Wiki entry on the Ames Straw Poll.
It's a fund raiser for the Iowa GOP, but for a a couple of days on either side of Aug. 13, the world's media will treat it like the Oracle of Delphi.
Some bulletins from the initial skirmishing:
Ron Paul shelled out $31,000 for the most expensive tent site outside Hilton Coliseum. It is the same ground Mitt Romney used to win the straw poll and then cleverly lose the caucus race four years ago.
A candidate who wanted to remain secret wadded all the stepins at the tent auction in state GOP headquarters. The other candidate representatives stalked out in protest, and Congressman Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan then agreed to lift his veil. (Editorial comment: I doubt keeping his candidacy secret will greatly challenge Mr. McCotter. Nevertheless, he is being added to your crucial TMR candidate list.)
---
It costs $30 to vote in the poll, plus money to get your people from Manly and Fertile* to Ames. The Paul campaign has offered fork over $20 of the poll tax and is running some buses from the outlying provinces to Ames. It's a big bet by Paul forces that he can show well enough that CNN quits calling him crazy.
---
*Real places, and we like remembering the headline in a weekly which said "Manly Man Marries Fertile Woman."
It's a fund raiser for the Iowa GOP, but for a a couple of days on either side of Aug. 13, the world's media will treat it like the Oracle of Delphi.
Some bulletins from the initial skirmishing:
Ron Paul shelled out $31,000 for the most expensive tent site outside Hilton Coliseum. It is the same ground Mitt Romney used to win the straw poll and then cleverly lose the caucus race four years ago.
A candidate who wanted to remain secret wadded all the stepins at the tent auction in state GOP headquarters. The other candidate representatives stalked out in protest, and Congressman Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan then agreed to lift his veil. (Editorial comment: I doubt keeping his candidacy secret will greatly challenge Mr. McCotter. Nevertheless, he is being added to your crucial TMR candidate list.)
---
It costs $30 to vote in the poll, plus money to get your people from Manly and Fertile* to Ames. The Paul campaign has offered fork over $20 of the poll tax and is running some buses from the outlying provinces to Ames. It's a big bet by Paul forces that he can show well enough that CNN quits calling him crazy.
---
*Real places, and we like remembering the headline in a weekly which said "Manly Man Marries Fertile Woman."
No, it's probably not a conspiracy of silence
I think the AP report on its own hot poll just reflects a headline mindset that that only the most fashionable candidates rate a mention. In this case that excluded Ron Paul from newsthink.
A fresh AP/GfK poll attempted to measure the favorability/unfavorability ratings of the "top" ten GOP candidates, and Paul was included. The writer assigned to turn the poll into publishable words didn't think Paul's showing was newsworthy. The good doctor didn't rate even a nod.
The more detailed report -- unpublishable in general news files -- tells a different story. In total favorability ratings, Paul beats everyone in the field except Romney. He beats Bachmann, Palin, Gingrich and the rest of the headliners.
Not surprisingly, he fares more poorly in the unfavorable category -- beating "only" Gingrich, Palin, and, err, Romney. Twenty-one years of being snickered at folks who talk on the electric teevee channels will do that to a guy.
Caution: Polling geekery alert:
The news report in the first cite above uses numbers different from the raw poll results. The narrative story deals with favorability ratings among Republicans only, while the data in the second covers opinions of all people polled. The number-crunching methodology to get from one to the other isn't reported. There's nothing necessarily sinister in that, and it doesn't alter the point that the news story contains a large black hole.
A fresh AP/GfK poll attempted to measure the favorability/unfavorability ratings of the "top" ten GOP candidates, and Paul was included. The writer assigned to turn the poll into publishable words didn't think Paul's showing was newsworthy. The good doctor didn't rate even a nod.
The more detailed report -- unpublishable in general news files -- tells a different story. In total favorability ratings, Paul beats everyone in the field except Romney. He beats Bachmann, Palin, Gingrich and the rest of the headliners.
Not surprisingly, he fares more poorly in the unfavorable category -- beating "only" Gingrich, Palin, and, err, Romney. Twenty-one years of being snickered at folks who talk on the electric teevee channels will do that to a guy.
Caution: Polling geekery alert:
The news report in the first cite above uses numbers different from the raw poll results. The narrative story deals with favorability ratings among Republicans only, while the data in the second covers opinions of all people polled. The number-crunching methodology to get from one to the other isn't reported. There's nothing necessarily sinister in that, and it doesn't alter the point that the news story contains a large black hole.
Jun 14, 2011
Ron Paul
I never intended this blog to hump for a candidate, but I think I'll make an exception.
Last night at St. Anselm's, Paul set himself apart. He said the American misery of 2011 is the logical result of 70 years of debasing the currency. He said the current crisis was predictable and certainly meant that it was predictable at any moment of the seven-decade runup to Weimar.
He also said the solution to the housing crises is to quit calling it a crisis. He said government should butt out and let home values fall to their actual worth, at which point they would find buyers and thus erase the market hangover of a million-plus "lender-owned" houses.
He said other things meant to engage the intellect of voters so equipped.
Too few, of course.
Love,
Don Quixote
Last night at St. Anselm's, Paul set himself apart. He said the American misery of 2011 is the logical result of 70 years of debasing the currency. He said the current crisis was predictable and certainly meant that it was predictable at any moment of the seven-decade runup to Weimar.
He also said the solution to the housing crises is to quit calling it a crisis. He said government should butt out and let home values fall to their actual worth, at which point they would find buyers and thus erase the market hangover of a million-plus "lender-owned" houses.
He said other things meant to engage the intellect of voters so equipped.
Too few, of course.
Love,
Don Quixote
Apr 28, 2011
Ron Paul "Could Actually Win"
So says The Week.
The conventional wisdom is that Paul stands no legitimate chance, says Drew Ivers, a member of the state central committee of Iowa's Republican Party ... But 2012 could be different. Paul is "in the epicenter of the three or four or five the most critical and controversial issues in our nation today," including government spending, the war, and the financial crisis. "That's how snowballs develop...".
Dr. Ivers (PhD plant geneticist with a second masters in theology) is Paul's Iowa campaign chairman. He is heavily credentialed in the art of caucus politics. He helped handle some winning campaigns as well as losers (Robertson, Buchanan, and, in 2008, Dr. Paul.) He was a founder of the Iowa Christian Coalition, now known as Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition.
Make what you will of the relationship between Paul and the evangelicals. I've hinted at my personal disappointment with the new coziness, but it's rock-solid that without evangelical support in the Iowa GOP caucus process, a candidate goes nowhere.
---
I hope Dr. Ivers' enthusiasm for Paul will prove to be more than the rosiness mandatory for all political operatives about their candidates' chances, that the new Iowa Paul movement can overcome the obstacles:
--Iowa has its full share of big-government conservatives, aka the WalMart vote. These are Obama's bitter clingers who, at the same time, want their social security checks, their Medicare, and, crucially, their lucrative farm subsidies. Libertarian talk scares their pants off. These are the Gingrich/Trump/Romney voters.
-- While Iowans claim to be among the best educated people in the country, the definition of that achievement can be loose. It's wonderful that Paul discusses the peril of fiat money and the tyranny of the Federal Reserve Board. That becomes politically pointless, however, when you can't find one in a dozen main-streeters capable of three coherent and unrehearsed minutes on either one.
--We're hearing things like Obama having no business in Libya because Qaddafi's oil goes to Europe, that is, gas prices in Strawberry Point are not affected by world oil supplies.
--The same principle applies to foreign policy. Can most of us find Syria on a map? Explain the high price we pay for our support of the government of Israel? Accept that there are limits to the morality and usefulness of American "power projection," even as we "support out troops?"
---
All of which suggests to me that Paul's most formidable task is as much educational as political, and the remaining eight months offer precious little time to accomplish much enlightenment, meaning the Paul race must excel at manipulating symbols. And that is what got us in this mess in the first place.
Still, I wish him well, and I'll hustle support as best I can. We may be beyond the point at which we can vote our way out of our large problems, but we might as well try.
H/T Roberta
The conventional wisdom is that Paul stands no legitimate chance, says Drew Ivers, a member of the state central committee of Iowa's Republican Party ... But 2012 could be different. Paul is "in the epicenter of the three or four or five the most critical and controversial issues in our nation today," including government spending, the war, and the financial crisis. "That's how snowballs develop...".
Dr. Ivers (PhD plant geneticist with a second masters in theology) is Paul's Iowa campaign chairman. He is heavily credentialed in the art of caucus politics. He helped handle some winning campaigns as well as losers (Robertson, Buchanan, and, in 2008, Dr. Paul.) He was a founder of the Iowa Christian Coalition, now known as Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition.
Make what you will of the relationship between Paul and the evangelicals. I've hinted at my personal disappointment with the new coziness, but it's rock-solid that without evangelical support in the Iowa GOP caucus process, a candidate goes nowhere.
---
I hope Dr. Ivers' enthusiasm for Paul will prove to be more than the rosiness mandatory for all political operatives about their candidates' chances, that the new Iowa Paul movement can overcome the obstacles:
--Iowa has its full share of big-government conservatives, aka the WalMart vote. These are Obama's bitter clingers who, at the same time, want their social security checks, their Medicare, and, crucially, their lucrative farm subsidies. Libertarian talk scares their pants off. These are the Gingrich/Trump/Romney voters.
-- While Iowans claim to be among the best educated people in the country, the definition of that achievement can be loose. It's wonderful that Paul discusses the peril of fiat money and the tyranny of the Federal Reserve Board. That becomes politically pointless, however, when you can't find one in a dozen main-streeters capable of three coherent and unrehearsed minutes on either one.
--We're hearing things like Obama having no business in Libya because Qaddafi's oil goes to Europe, that is, gas prices in Strawberry Point are not affected by world oil supplies.
--The same principle applies to foreign policy. Can most of us find Syria on a map? Explain the high price we pay for our support of the government of Israel? Accept that there are limits to the morality and usefulness of American "power projection," even as we "support out troops?"
---
All of which suggests to me that Paul's most formidable task is as much educational as political, and the remaining eight months offer precious little time to accomplish much enlightenment, meaning the Paul race must excel at manipulating symbols. And that is what got us in this mess in the first place.
Still, I wish him well, and I'll hustle support as best I can. We may be beyond the point at which we can vote our way out of our large problems, but we might as well try.
H/T Roberta
Apr 27, 2011
Ben Bernanke and Stephen King
This is one of those rare days when watching an electric teevee should not be considered a sign of arrested development.
At 2:15 p.m. (Eastern Commune Time) the first-ever news conference by a sitting commissar of the Federal Reserve Board will go on the air. Couple of drive-by points:
--No one is being discourteous enough to suggest that Ron Paul has rattled Bernanke and his courtiers enough to force them to crack the windows a little. A news conference every three months is a long way from a professional audit. However, it's at least a tiny advance from our magic money gurus' insistence that 300 million American have no need to know a damned thing about turbocharged printing presses.
--Ben's dog and pony show will, without the slightest doubt, tell us most things are fine and that he has a plan to fix the few faltering parts.
Sorry, but that makes me think of digging up the Pet Semetary and not noticing that the cat walks funny.
.
At 2:15 p.m. (Eastern Commune Time) the first-ever news conference by a sitting commissar of the Federal Reserve Board will go on the air. Couple of drive-by points:
--No one is being discourteous enough to suggest that Ron Paul has rattled Bernanke and his courtiers enough to force them to crack the windows a little. A news conference every three months is a long way from a professional audit. However, it's at least a tiny advance from our magic money gurus' insistence that 300 million American have no need to know a damned thing about turbocharged printing presses.
--Ben's dog and pony show will, without the slightest doubt, tell us most things are fine and that he has a plan to fix the few faltering parts.
Sorry, but that makes me think of digging up the Pet Semetary and not noticing that the cat walks funny.
.
Apr 26, 2011
Ron Paul makes it official
No one is surprised. The good doctor is to announce something in Des Moines this afternoon, and if it isn't formation of a White House exploratory committee I'll kiss your arse on the steps of the Cato Institute and give you time to get Chris Mathews and his camera crew to the ceremony.
Ron Paul's 2008 caucus vote was 9+ per cent. Without Gary Johnson and a couple of even more minor candidates making libertarian noises, Paul would do better this time for three reasons: (1) He's learned from his 2008 organizational mistakes, mainly frittering away money. (2) He is actively courting the evangelical right with a harder pro-life position. (3) Libertarian thinking has become less outre after two Obama years which gave even the unwashed a glimpse of what a statist future really holds.
If Johnson perseveres, he'll get a good measure of the Paul vote. Cain and Trump will also get pieces of it. If we use the caucus vote to measure the advance of liberty thinking, adding the Paul and Moore tallies will probably be the best we can do.
---
I'll jump the gun a little and make the day's second edit of your vital list of Air Force 1 aspirants. (Link fixed.)
Rand is out. He was never much more than a velleity among the small set which prefers younger libertarian heads, balmed with Brylcreem.
---
UPDATE: Ron Paul did the expected.
Ron Paul's 2008 caucus vote was 9+ per cent. Without Gary Johnson and a couple of even more minor candidates making libertarian noises, Paul would do better this time for three reasons: (1) He's learned from his 2008 organizational mistakes, mainly frittering away money. (2) He is actively courting the evangelical right with a harder pro-life position. (3) Libertarian thinking has become less outre after two Obama years which gave even the unwashed a glimpse of what a statist future really holds.
If Johnson perseveres, he'll get a good measure of the Paul vote. Cain and Trump will also get pieces of it. If we use the caucus vote to measure the advance of liberty thinking, adding the Paul and Moore tallies will probably be the best we can do.
---
I'll jump the gun a little and make the day's second edit of your vital list of Air Force 1 aspirants. (Link fixed.)
Rand is out. He was never much more than a velleity among the small set which prefers younger libertarian heads, balmed with Brylcreem.
---
UPDATE: Ron Paul did the expected.
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