Stop me if you've already heard this.

In 2012, Groundhog Day and the State of the Union address happen the same day. This is an ironic juxtaposition of events.

One involves a meaningless ritual in which we look to an insignificant creature of little intelligence for prognostication.

The other involves a groundhog.

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(Thank you, Hans)

An Iowa blogger joins the TMR blog roll. He's ColdHardCashner, a Constitutionalist and  big-L  Libertarian who's spending this season working hard for Ron Paul in the Iowa caucus. Welcome aboard, Sir.

The hot, the tepid, and the frozen; Iowa Caucuses 2012

The complete TMR caucus list just published named 25 hopefuls.

Of those, 12  remain alive for the caucuses, although some only in the purely techincal sense. As a practical matter, six are  cyrogenic. None actively campaigned.  Among them, only Huntsman is accorded a chance of scoring as much as 5 per cent. Johnson might eke out 1 per cent.  The aggregate vote for these men should not materially affect the chances of any of the viable candidates.

John Davis


Jon Huntsman


Gary Johnson


Fred Karger


Roy Moore


Buddy Roemer

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The tepid. Any one of them might  break out into the hot class over the remaining 17 days. Short of Venus melting right into Mars, however, none of them will head for New Hampshire with a braggable Iowa record.

Michele Bachman


Rick Perry


Rick Santorum

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Leaving the hotties

Newt Gingrich


Ron Paul


Mitt Romney


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These lists are alphabetical. I'm not ready to handicap horses (whole or partial)  yet, just as I would be scared witless to  bet on the number of hours the next Kardashian marriage will endure.

Herding Elephants V2.9, Iowa Caucuses 2012

(Bumped up again, just for convenience. Also upated with date of Cain's bailout.)

EDIT, December  17, 201:  Because it seems unlikely anyone still on the list (in black) will formally drop out before the Jan. 3, 2012 caucuses, this list can be considered final  in the sense of listing everyone who is, was, or might have been mentioned publicly as a caucus contender.  I relegate it to history and hereby grant permission for reproduction, with credit,  for the use of academics who wish to give the impression of having done rigorous and detailed research.  The earlier versions    remain in the TMR achives under various titles. The easiest way to find them is by scrolling through the posts labeled "Iowa Caucuses 2012.)

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Even dedicated political geeks have a hard time keeping track of all the White House hopefuls trying out their pickup lines in Iowa. For one thing, it is hard to find a complete list of the serious, semi-serious,  and loony  trying on overalls and looking for a comfortable hay-bale perch.  So, here's an alphabetical list of these statesmen as culled from published sources, but I haven't gotten around to ferreting out all of the more obscure dimwaddiedoowops yet. 

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--Michele Bachmann, 55,  congresswoman, Minnesota


--(OUT) Haley Barbour, 64, Mississippi governor (Dropped out April 25)


--John Bolton,  63, former ambassador, Bush II's point man in Iraq. (Dropped out September 26.) 


-- (OUT) Herman Cain, 66, Godfather's Pizza.(Dropped out -- "suspended campaign"  -- December 3)


-- (OUT) Mitch Daniels, 62, Indiana governor (dropped May 21)


--John Davis of Grand Junction, Colorado, lumber yard owner, builder (added May 3)


--Newt Gingrich,  68, former U.S. House speaker, Georgia


--(OUT) Mike Huckabee, 56, former Arkansas governor, Fox teevee star (dropped May 15)


--Jon Huntsman, 51, former Utah governor,  ambassador to China


--Gary Johnson, 43, former New Mexico governor (added April 22)

--Fred Karger, California, GOP politcal consultant, openly gay. (Added August 14)

--(OUT) Thaddeus George "Thad" McCotter, 45,  Michigan congressman (added June 24, dropped out September 22.) 

--Judge Roy Moore, 64, disrobed, two-time loser for Alabama governor  (added May 19)


--Sarah Palin,  47, former Alaska governor, VP candidate 2008 (Out. Withdrew   Oct. 5.)

--(OUT) George Pataki, 66, former New York governor. (Added august 25 and dropped August 26) 

--(OUT) Rand Paul, 48, Kentucky U.S. senator (if  his dad opts out).  (Dropped April 26 in anticipation of Ron's formal "in" announcement)


  
--Ron Paul, 75, Texas congressman, former LP presidential candidate


--Tim Pawlenty,  51, former  Minnesota governor (Dropped August 14; withdrew after Ames straw poll)


--(OUT)  Mike Pence, 52, Indiana congressman (dropped May 15)


--Rick Perry, 61, Texas governor, (added June 19)


--Buddy Roemer, 68, former Louisiana governor


--Mitt Romney, 64, former Massachusetts governor


--Rick Santorum,  53, former U.S. senator, Pennsylvania


--( OUT?) John thune, South Dakota senator. (Dropped from list,with reservations, May 21)


--(OUT) Donald Trump, 65, businessman, casino operator, teevee star (dropped May 16) 

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The list will change, and I'll try to keep it more or less up to date.

EDIT: May 5:Red ink identifies those who bailed after having been considered players or possibles.  I thought of just deleting them, but that seems so cold.

EDIT: John Thune was Xed out May 21. He said in February he wouldn't run, but the weasel words(not planning at this time, etc.)suggested he desired begging. No one has  begged yet,  and he hasn't been spotted scouting our hog lots, so TMR crosses him off with the caution that things are silly enough that he might change his mind.)