Dec 31, 2011

Bated Breath (2), Iowa Caucuses 2012

In an hour we'll get the important pollster's final guess on how well the libertarian idea is selling in Iowa. Ann Selzer runs the Iowa Poll, and her operation was the  best predictor four years ago. It's paid for by the predictably statist Des Moines Register, but the little green editors there seem to leave Ann alone. They follow the Mark Twain dicta of journalism: "Get your facts first, then you can twist them as much as you want."

Ron Paul has been holding his own despite being outed as an insane anti-semitic racist who wants to spread the American legs wide for penetration by all those nasty foreigners  -- Arabs,  Commies,  Zoroastrians and so forth. His plan to use the 82nd Airborne as school-crossing guards has hurt him  especially badly. But he perseveres as No.1 or 2 --  more or less tied with Mitt Romney in the other polls.

Rick Santorum has emerged as the sort-of concensus candidate for those who think we'll get to heaven by peeping in one another's windows and reporting abominations to the proper authorities.

I'll pass on the poll results here, even though they'll be all over the media within minutes.

N.B. -- Even though Ann is considered damn good at her job, polling a universe as tiny and flighty as 90,000 - 120,000 expected caucusoids  is a major challenge.

Forced to bet right now, my limited-confidence guess of the poll results is:

1. Romney

2. Paul (or in a statistical dead heat with Mitt)


4. Gingrich

...followed by those who no longer matter.

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