Dec 3, 2011

Hunch confirmed: Gingrich, Paul, Romney: Iowa Caucuses 2012

A brief recess from reality is in order as we hoist a pint to Ron Paul. He makes the headlines again in the  farm-fresh Iowa Poll --  behind Newt and ahead of MItt, also up on even Dunno.

In order:

Newt Gingrich 25
Ron Paul 18
Mitt Romney 16
Undecided 11
Michele Bachmann 8
Herman Cain 8 (poll taken before he hit the mat))
Rick Perry 6
Rick Santorum 6

I'm not about to crunch  lot of numbers or subject readers to prophecy posing as analysis, but something stands out. Even if every Cain voter switched to Bachmann or Perry or Santorum, that person would still trail Dr. Paul.

Politico's Maggie Haberman purrs welcome words into libertarian-leaning ears:

As for the rest, the poll also means the Paul rise is also real - and in a fractured, multi-candidate field, if he can pull a few more points his way and expand his base, he could win the caucuses given his level of organization. This would be the best scenario for Romney short of an outright win there himself at this point.

It wouldn't be bad for Paul, either. Even scaring Newt here would send him strong to New Hampshire where a finish around  20 per cent would keep him kicking through more primaries than we expected.

We all know the odds that, in the end, one of the showmen will beat the statesman. Never mind. We were never about Ron Paul. We are about the idea of free men and women, an idea whose most effective embodiment at this stage of our history is Ron Paul.


Tam said...

To listen to msnbc or CNN this morning, Cain pulling out and the latest Iowa poll means that it's now a two-way race: Gingrich v. Romney.

Who's this Paul guy you're talking about? They didn't even mention him.

Anonymous said...

So, I have a litmus test for Republican candidates.

I know a guy in Des Moines who is so far left, he makes Stalin and Mao combined look like Jefferson.

Last election cycle, he says, "McCain is pretty reasonable." That's my clue that McCain is a closet liberal who will bend over and do the Democrats biding. Thus, I must caucus for anyone other than McCain.

This election cycle he's saying Romney is pretty reasonable. Of course he is. He make the federal weapons ban permanent in MA. Thus, I must caucus for anyone other than Romney.

Gingrich isn't bad on gun rights as far as I know and might do an ok job. He was great at being the underdog pounding on the incumbent party. Does that necessarily mean he'll be a good president? I'm not so sure.

Paul is from Texas so that in itself pisses off my Stalin/Mao acquaintance. He's pro-gun. The Federal Reserve needs to be pulled into line. Spending needs to be pulled into line. Paul's only weakness is his isolationism but he'll be forced to outgrow that once in office. The current loser we have now promised pie in the sky troop pull outs, etc. but got schooled in reality once he was in the oval office.

Overall, I'm tempted to throw my vote for Paul. He's still an outsider even though he's an insider. His values are mostly spot on from what I can see.

Oh... and I'm one of those people whose phone isn't rung by the polling analysts so I'm that dark horse unknown that makes his voice heard on a cold winter night. :-)

Jim said...

Tam, I think Ron Paul is that guy with the mutated Lamont Cranston gene, rendering him invisible to people who take paychecks from big-time papers and networks. Or, if not invisible, a faint, frightening, shadow best ignored -- not unlike the fear of a John Galt terrifying Wesley Mouch.

Anon: From your lips to God's ears. Not a one of us argues Paul is a Savior, just the man most likely to begin a national turnaround which, under the best of circumstances, will take many years. Thank you for giving him such serious consideration.