At this moment Paul may be the clear favorite here. This exposes him to dat ol'debbil game of expectations.
1. In the two weeks remaining he will suffer unremitting negative attacks. They will center on general goofiness and advanced age with a strong undertone of alleged racism and anti-semitism.
2. These will have some effect, perhaps enough to deny him victory or even a strong second-place finish.
3. If that happens he will enter New Hampshire weaker, and his small but increasing support in South Carolina and Florida will deteriorate. Super Tuesday will be a Newt Romney walkaway.
The other danger here is really energized preachers pounding their KJVs. There's still time for them to coalesce around one of their own. Bachmann, in particular, is running a near-perfect end-game race.