Showing posts with label Iowa Caucuses 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucuses 2012. Show all posts

Sep 8, 2011

Ron Paul and the Great Debate

Sir, please spend whatever it costs to hire a good television coach. And pay attention when he explains the difference between television and the Shakespearean stage.

The images on tiny screens in millions of homes are fatal to the man who uses the broad gestures and large body language of live theatre. The rhetorical arts you learned in high school 60 years ago are deadly when teevee cameras zoom in. The shoulder lunges, in particular, say "crazy."

McLuhan and his followers illustrated how and why television is a "cool" medium requiring a "cool" approach.

It gags a man to suggest that you study the teevee style of Perry and Romney, but you should. Their relative mastery of television makes their bullshit sound almost plausible. Imagine what the approach would do for your message of recognizing reality and engaging in logical thought processes.

Aug 26, 2011

Quick as a flash; Iowa caucuses 2012

Governor Pataki has announced that he will not come visit us here in Ioway tomorrow. We are deeply saddened.

Well to heck with him. Refusing our hospitality gets him booted from your must-read list of people we might allow to succeed His Obamaness. 

We will not accept the excuse that George read the work of a small-time local blogger and decided the revelations  made our caucuses a hopeless cause.

There's an achieve-but-not-maintain joke in here somewhere, but it isn't worth reaching for.


Aug 25, 2011

Pull up another bale of straw; Iowa Caucuses 2012

Eleven years ago, George Pataki got a big wet smooch from Carolyn McCarthy. You remember her -- the eek-eek-a-gun New York congresswoman. She was rewarding her governor for  signing "the strictest gun control laws in the nation."

He probably won't display a picture of that tender moment Saturday at the Iowa State Fairgrounds where The Great Expecters expect him to further pollute  join the herd of neocons running for president.

Pataki has been mostly under the TMR radar, and I think he's been mentioned here only in passing. Nevertheless, he's now being added to your vital list of other Republicans braying for votes in the Iowa caucuses.

A net search on this guy reveals he's become quite a backer of our veterans.  His pollsters told him they have  become a voting block of heroic size. That makes them heroes to  patriotic George, so he hopes you won't  notice a tidbit from his personal history.

In 1964 he was 19 years old at a time when it was easy to demonstrate your patriotism by fighting bad guys Vietnam. George found it more convenient to march off to Yale.

Aug 14, 2011

Pawlenty out and Sad Fred Karger In; Iowa Caucuses 2012

No one is surprised Pawlenty withdrew. He just did it sooner than expected. Your indispensable guide to presidential candidates is updated. Give me reasonable odds and I'll wager T-Paw is looking at a challenge to Al Franken.

I'm also adding a guy I knew slightly in the Reagan years. He Fred Karger, a gay Republican political "consultant" and operative. I ran into him yesterday and came as close to feeling sorry for him as I can for any hustling aspirant to the public trough. At least he had balls enough to stand right next to the political evangelicals' big tent, talk about being gay,  and hand out post card promos, each with a small jelly bean taped on.  

One Saturday in Ames

The Ron Paul registration tent a few minutes after it opened.

Paul forces have discovered the usefulness of the carnival approach toward saving America. The little kids mobbed this one, pulling themselves laboriously up the mountain for a quick slide down. The point to be impressed on their elders was that two centuries of hard work can be erased by a couple of decades' over-borrowing.  

The Midway --gimme caps, fried food,  free pop, and your choice of petitions to sign. (I limited myself to one, for constitutional carry.)

Somebody in the Perry camp got to feeling uneasy that he had absolutely no presence and that his announcement timing was a gob of spit in the Iowa face. So they hired an untalented middle-school kid to decorate a van. This is about as good as it got for Perry here. 

From the belly of the beast

(I'm still in Straw Poll recovery, tired. So let a rambling personal note to an old and dear friend stand as my interim report on the Ames follies. He writes:

...What about that Ron Paul?  I'll bet the Republican National Committee reached in and burned a few hundred votes, else wise he wold have buried Michelle.  Awesome.  Can he win in January?  End all the wars!  Audit the Fed!  Repeal the drug laws!


---


And I can do no better than:



The  RP of Iowa runs this show, and the count is accurate. It is a quadrennial fund raiser which generates seven figures for the party, and these guys are smart enough to know that loose tallies would kill credibility, hence the goose.

What makes Paul's finish all the more impressive is his opponent. Actually, opponents, plural.

In running against Michele he took on the entire  Jesus-on-my-Sleeve political apparatus, and Iowa is a fundamentalist bastion.  They are well-funded and exceptionally well-organized. To even approach the numbers of Bob VanderPlatts' crusaders is a victory more than moral.

He also bucked the muddle-headed GOP center, what Goldwater called the east coast establishment, the Rockefellerites who differ with the hard left only in the speed and direction of their statist ambitions. And these guys are even richer than the fundies.

So, I'm pleased with his c. 25 per cent even though yesterday probably marked his personal high point.  You should have noticed by now that the news coverage is concentrated on how soon Michele will burn out, how Romney will fare against Perry, and the level of chaos Sarah will create if and when she jumps in. In media eyes Congressman Paul remains a quaint old fellow with a few useful thoughts but certainly is not a man to be taken seriously. I mean, who cares about those crazy Austrian economists? Who can even understand them? And Murray Rothbard? Whozzat?

To be viable six months from now, Paul would need at least very strong second-place finishes in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. (Nevada -- where he might even win --  could help him, but I haven't checked on its 2012 primary/caucus arrangements yet.)  He will get the money he needs for these early contests, but his message is ultimately not salable to 50 per cent plus one at this time in our history.

---


I was there with one of those unlimited-access badges around my neck, so I got to hang out about anywhere I wanted. I chose mostly to mingle with the enthusiastic youngsters -- kids your students' age. I haven't digested the events well enough to write about them yet, and I have only one firm observation to report: Ron Paul's volunteer co-eds were quite a little prettier than Michele's, but the typical Bachmann girl showed a lot more leg. Make of it what you will.

:)

Jim


(Addendum: I hope no one confuses opposition to theocracy with opposition to religion.) 











Aug 12, 2011

Ron Paul and the Seven Dwarfs

No one laid a glove on him last night, but, then, no one really tried to box him into a corner. Paul was his usual thoughtful self which is good for the national intellect, not so good for getting elected.

No one but Rick (I'm holier than Michele, honest) Santorum even swung hard, and he drew boos for saying Paul's Fed stance was "mostly wrong."

It's all background noise now, of course. The debate spin cycle has just a few more hours to run, and by the time the straw poll opens tomorrow the electrical teevee will overload circuits with news of Rick (I'm even holier than Santorum, plus I can do arithmetic and have cooler hair) Perry.

It is no longer about policy. It's about buses from the boondocks to Ames, full of people who made up their minds long ago. Paul has spent money on this little beauty contest. He has the buses and a much better organization than 2007. In the data-free expectations charades, he's tabbed to finish in the top three with Michele and Somebody Else.  The better he does, the more pressure on media types to  quit snickering every time someone uses the term liberty. 

(There are no polls about this straw poll. The universe is too small, the expected turnout ranging from just under 14,000 to maybe 18,000.)

---

Rocinante is saddled and I've scrubbed rust from the lance.  A new edition of the TSA windmill identification guide is at hand. The house sitter/dog handler arrives shortly.  I am putting aside my general disinclination to join groups larger than 30,000 and attend receptions where people in shined Florsheims notice your necktie.  If this doesn't pay off in at least one belly laugh and several heartfelt grins, I am going to be one pissed off old war hose.



Aug 11, 2011

As Mr. Poe may have explained the straw poll...

The pestilence rages across the countryside, but in the palace Prospero entertains brilliantly. Hummingbird tongues and the finest Madeira please palates, and we dance away the hours while murmuring of our choices to replace the evil king.

---


A man I admire greatly is coming briefly out of retirement to accept an unexpected  invitation to mingle with the mighty this weekend. He will enjoy the ball and all its dainties.  He will ignore the messengers bringing news of war, of riots, of  financial ruin from the outer world. Royal credential pinned to his doublet, he is  to be protected from all reality beyond the moat.  Like the real lords he will pretend there is no ominous thumping at the gate. And he will, for this brief evening, be correct in doing so. Have not the Duchess Bachman and Lord Perry assured him that they know the incantations to ward off Satan's power?

The gives my dear old friend leave to stay the night, to arise on Saturday and deliver his own ultimately futile decision. That the good doctor from the far province of  Texas should replace the king.

It will be ever so much fun, ne'er mind that lords beyond Ames will ultimately scorn the physician and choose a shaman to vie with the current crowned head.

And there will be other balls, laughter echoing from the gilded walls and unending waltzes from the musicians' balcony. My friend will not let his mind wander too far forward.  One should not enervate one's system with premature concern for  logical processes. Inevitability is a bore. Frightening, yet still a bore, so let others worry about the denouement.

---

And now was acknowledged the presence of the Red Death. He had come like a thief in the night. And one by one dropped the revellers in the blood-bedewed halls of their revel, and died each in the despairing posture of his fall. And the life of the ebony clock went out with that of the last of the gay. And the flames of the tripods expired. And Darkness and Decay and the Red Death held illimitable dominion over all. 






Jul 20, 2011

The three-Excedrin candidate

Michele gets headaches. Beyond ordinary compassion for any human suffering, I didn't know I had reason to care. Then I read:

Bachmann could get sympathy from some voters, (Larry) Sabato said, since “millions suffer from migraines.”

(The seer Sabato runs something called the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, and we are entitled to assume that his insights are nourished at the public trough.)

Y'know, he could just as well have told the Register that Michele could get sympathy for alleged dimwittery since millions of voters also suffer from cranial vacuity.

Strictly personally and putting compassion aside, it isn't Michele's migraines that worry me. It is my own as I ponder even the slim chance that she might one day be empowered to order a couple of Marine Expeditionary Units to quell a pro-choice uprising in Peoria.

Jun 30, 2011

Too Much Giddyup, There, Your Honor?

All Iowa mourns the happenstance which might deprive us of the ability to see more of Judge Moore, the disrobed jurist who graces your comprehensive guide to GOP presidential  wannabees.

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"While breaking our stud horse this weekend, Judge Moore was thrown and hit on his back. After visiting the doctor, he has broken and/or cracked ribs. "

That doctor must have a particularly objectionable bedside manner.

And it was an error for the spokesperson to specify that the horse was a stud. Vulgar language offends the puritans who determine whom we will permit you to vote for in the Holy Crusade to retire His Obamaness. The only acceptable usage to the Vander Plattsians  is "boy" horse.

Jun 28, 2011

Maybe she really does produce bat guano

Michelle was in Waterloo yesterday to announce she really and officially wants to be president of these 57 great states.

In presenting her qualifications, she allowed she was proud to be Waterloo-born,  just like John Wayne.

Ooops. She was perhaps thinking of John Wayne Gacy, who lived there for a while. The other one, the one who wore Stetsons and shot movie Indians, was born in Winterset, about 130 miles away.

"Hello Pentagon. This is President Bachmann, and I want you to bomb Ireland. No, wait, I mean Iceland ... errr, Iraq. Wait a minute.  We already bombed Iraq, I think. It's Iran. Yes. Iran. Bomb them."

Jun 24, 2011

Turkeys in the straw (also Ron Paul)

If you like politics or political theatre it's time now to refresh your memory by heading over to the Wiki entry on the Ames Straw Poll.

It's a fund raiser for the Iowa GOP, but for a a couple of days on either side of Aug. 13, the world's media will treat it like the Oracle of Delphi.

Some bulletins from the initial skirmishing:

Ron Paul shelled out $31,000 for the most expensive tent site outside Hilton Coliseum. It is the same ground Mitt Romney used to win the straw poll and then cleverly lose the caucus race four years ago.

A candidate who wanted to remain secret wadded all the stepins at the tent auction in state GOP headquarters. The other candidate representatives stalked out in protest, and Congressman Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan then agreed to lift his veil. (Editorial comment: I doubt keeping his candidacy secret will greatly challenge Mr. McCotter. Nevertheless, he is being added to your crucial TMR candidate list.)
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It costs $30 to vote in the poll, plus money to get your people from Manly and Fertile* to Ames. The Paul campaign has offered fork over $20 of the poll tax and is running some buses from the outlying provinces to Ames. It's a big bet by Paul  forces that he can show well enough that CNN quits calling him crazy.

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*Real places, and we like remembering the headline in a weekly which said "Manly Man Marries Fertile Woman."





No, it's probably not a conspiracy of silence

I think the AP report on its own hot poll just reflects a headline mindset that that only the most fashionable candidates rate a mention. In this case that excluded Ron Paul from newsthink.

A fresh AP/GfK poll attempted to measure the favorability/unfavorability ratings of the "top" ten  GOP candidates, and Paul was included. The writer assigned to turn the poll into publishable words didn't think Paul's showing was newsworthy. The good doctor didn't rate even a nod.

The more detailed report -- unpublishable in general news files -- tells a different story. In total favorability ratings, Paul beats everyone in the field except Romney.  He beats Bachmann, Palin, Gingrich and the rest of the headliners.

Not surprisingly, he fares more poorly in the unfavorable category -- beating "only" Gingrich, Palin, and, err, Romney.  Twenty-one years of being snickered at folks who talk on the electric teevee channels will do that to a guy.

Caution: Polling geekery alert:

The news report in the first cite above uses numbers different from the raw poll results. The narrative story deals with favorability ratings among Republicans only, while the data  in the second covers opinions of all people polled.  The number-crunching methodology to get from one to the other isn't reported.  There's nothing necessarily sinister in that, and it doesn't alter the point that the news story contains a large black hole.

Jun 20, 2011

Oh For Gawd's Sake, Another One

George Pataki has been background noise for a while now, even as he digs his toe into the dirt and aww schuckses that he ain't about to try to be president. Jist yet, anyhoo.

 But today he spat on his hand and patted down the cowlick.

He's here. He's making a speech. He also narrating a new Iowa cable teevee ad saying we're spending too much money. And he's having breakfast with Governor Branstad tomorrow. Reporter Jennifer Jacobs made me smile with:

 He delicately expressed some discontent with the current lineup of candidates.


Just like us. We often express delicate discontent with nose warts, don't we?


(Dr. Paul and Gov. Johnson are excepted, of course.)


We'll watch the George show a while before we put him on the official candidate list.


----


One of the dynamics here is deep concern by the Iowa political class is that that our caucuses are beginning to produce more yawns than a Joe Biden speech. I think I see a quietly desperate move by the GOP pros to do anything they can to return to those thrilling days when Iowa was the center of the universe. Padding the candidate field is one way to do that, and I'm thinking of having New Dog Libby call a presser to announce that she will make a decision in July.  

Jun 19, 2011

Sarah Palin note

The media orgasm over Michelle Bachmann's debate performance at St. Anselm's  has made Sarah a little less likely to run. After all, how many ammo girls can one campaign support?

(Michelle didn't stimulate my base instincts. Far as I could tell all she did was avoid having George Washington free the slaves.)

When Perry finally stops being coy, his official presence will add another challenge to any thoughts Palin might have of running.

But she remains on the list of caucus possibles. This woman is a genius at keeping her name recognition at a Paris Hilton level, and I think she harbors a secret dream.

The GOP caucuses and primaries run their course and result in political chaos, leading to an actively contested 2012 Republican National Convention. She emerges    as the compromise nominee. Then she goes to Alaska to shoot a moose and look at Russia.

Ooooh! We got Rick! -- Iowa Caucuses 2012

Poor Texas. For years it has had Perry all to itself. Now it has to share.

The Texas governor played the beg-me game to perfection, and it probably didn't hurt  that even the GOP establishment -- a group ordinarily immune to embarrassment -- was retching at the candidate crop.

Now, Rick hasn't made it final. His designated spokesfella says he has to send his legislature home, then think about it some more, then go have the healers fix his back a little. Then maybe he'll come and talk to us about hogs and corn and moral purity. Probably he wants us to beg just a little more. 

He began political life as a Democrat. Then, Glory, Glory He Saw The Light and/or Hired a Better Pollster

Since joining the GOP he's been a mixed bag but, in general, just one of your mill-run neocons. Rick will sometimes recognize your pockets are not bottomless,  but he's even more anxious to announce what should be legal and what must be proscribed on and under your bedroom percale.

He finds it worth noting in his Wiki entry that he was an Aggie Yell Leader. Other universities might have called him a cheer leader, but, y'know, Texans are different.

(Personally, and this is just an aside, I've wondered  at this business of male morale boosters on the sidelines.  There are other possibilities, but maybe A and M doesn't have enough coeds with ammo-girl legs. Or maybe they're limiting their T and A  display in order to broaden football demographics down there and  attract more ladies to the sport. )

But back to Rick's intellectual and political qualifications, also from his Wiki piece is this about his college years:

"He interned with the Southern Company during the summer time as a door to door book salesman where he honed his communication skills."

This makes my day so much brighter.

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Your  vital guide to the candidates courting  Iowa indigenous personnel has been updated. It also requires a slight modification to reflect that some of them say they won't woo us. Don't take that too literally. It really means that they'll show up at our door with fake flowers and a box of WalMart chocolates. Cheapskates.

Herding the Elephants -- Iowa Caucuses 2012

(Bumped up, just for convenience.)


Even dedicated political geeks have a hard time keeping track of all the White House hopefuls trying out their pickup lines in Iowa. For one thing, it is hard to find a complete list of the serious, semi-serious,  and loony  trying on overalls and looking for a comfortable hay-bale perch.  So, here's an alphabetical list of these statesmen as culled from published sources, but I haven't gotten around to ferreting out all of the more obscure dimwaddiedoowops yet. 

---------------------

--Michele Bachmann, 55,  congresswoman, Minnesota


--(OUT) Haley Barbour, 64, Mississippi governor (Dropped out April 25)


--John Bolton,  63, former ambassador, Bush II's point man in Iraq


--Herman Cain, 66, Godfather's Pizza


-- (OUT) Mitch Daniels, 62, Indiana governor (dropped May 21)


--John Davis of Grand Junction, Colorado, lumber yard owner, builder (added May 3)


--Newt Gingrich,  68, former U.S. House speaker, Georgia


--(OUT) Mike Huckabee, 56, former Arkansas governor, Fox teevee star (dropped May 15)


--Jon Huntsman, 51, former Utah governor,  ambassador to China


--Gary Johnson, 43, former New Mexico governor (added April 22)


--Fred Karger, California, GOP politcal consultant, openly gay. (Added August 14)


--Thaddeus George "Thad" McCotter, 45,  Michigan congressman (added June 24)

--Judge Roy Moore, 64, disrobed, two-time loser for Alabama governor  (added May 19)


--Sarah Palin,  47, former Alaska governor, VP candidate 2008


--(OUT) George Pataki, 66, former New York governor. (Added august 25 and dropped August 26)

--(OUT) Rand Paul, 48, Kentucky U.S. senator (if  his dad opts out).  (Dropped April 26 in anticipation of Ron's formal "in" announcement)


  
--Ron Paul, 75, Texas congressman, former LP presidential candidate


--Tim Pawlenty,  51, former  Minnesota governor (Dropped August 14; withdrew after Ames straw poll)


--(OUT)  Mike Pence, 52, Indiana congressman (dropped May 15)


--Rick Perry, 61, Texas governor, (added June 19)


--Buddy Roemer, 68, former Louisiana governor


--Mitt Romney, 64, former Massachusetts governor


--Rick Santorum,  53, former U.S. senator, Pennsylvania


--( OUT?) John thune, South Dakota senator. (Dropped from list,with reservations, May 21)


--(OUT) Donald Trump, 65, businessman, casino operator, teevee star (dropped May 16) 

-0-

The list will change, and I'll try to keep it more or less up to date.

EDIT: May 5:Red ink identifies those who bailed after having been considered players or possibles.  I thought of just deleting them, but that seems so cold.

EDIT: John Thune was Xed out May 21. He said in February he wouldn't run, but the weasel words(not planning at this time, etc.)suggested he desired begging. No one has  begged yet,  and he hasn't been spotted scouting our hog lots, so TMR crosses him off with the caution that things are silly enough that he might change his mind.)



Jun 17, 2011

The Elephant Grave Yard; Iowa Caucuses 2012

Your indispensable guide to whom we sanctified Iowans will permit you to vote for hasn't been updated for a while. It's still fairly valid -- at least as valid as the  hyperactive press prose we get every four years.

(Find what irony you will in the reams of published copy saying that our caucuses are no longer relevant.  If we don't matter so much -- and we don't -- wouldn't it be more reasonable to just shut up for a few news cycles?)

Perry of Texas is making draft-me noises. So is Christie of Joisey. (Perry can be expected to make disapproving cluck-cluck noises about the national obesity scandal. Chris can't.)

I'll be fiddling with the list  pretty soon, maybe adding some qualitative annotations,  but for now it's okay.

May 26, 2011

Racist Tea Party B*st*rds

Or maybe not. Herman Cain of Georgia is a black man, and last night he swamped all comers at a western Iowa county GOP fund raiser.

Herm took 55 per cent of the Pottawatomie County straw vote, helped by being there with a give-em-Hell keynote speech. Sarah Palin wasn't, and  she took 38 per cent.

It's not at all meaningful, a strawlet in a big wind. Still, it's pleasant to see that front-limper Mitt Romney and our old old old old pal Newt scored zero per cent with zero votes. It is less fun to report Ron Paul at 1 per cent.

Pottawatomie County is far west, just across the Missouri from the cosmopolitan sin center known as Omaha. Lots of Tea Party types and "values" voters in those parts.

---

Side notes:

--The Washington Post this morning is carrying one of those information-free reports saying Sarah might run.  She has a shadow organization in place here.

--Big-money GOPers from Iowa are going to New Jersey to beg Christie to run.

May 22, 2011

Daniels Geronimos -- Iowa Caucuses 2012

Scratch Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. He claims he's out of the GOP nomination  run.  Wants to spend more time with his family, donchaknow.

The GOP smoke-filled rooms liked his Washington experience and on-the-surface economic conservatism, and he would have been one of the better-financed and  promoted candidates.  His bailout suggests he thinks the odds of winning the nomination and then beating HIs Obamaness are too slim to justify his bother.

Also gone from the list is South Dakota Senator John Thune. He said a couple of months ago he wouldn't run, but he used enough weasel words I didn't believe him. He's been quiet and absent from the early caucus skirmishes since then, however, so maybe he meant it.

Your  indispensable guide to the presidential caucuses is down to 14 actives and semi-actives and has been updated.

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